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Self pol 

Place your bets: How many committed delegates will I get from viable Christa subcaucuses? There are about 3700 delegate seats.

Self pol 

Feel free to put your guess (and justification?) in this thread if you want to compare notes.

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Self pol 

I feel like 50-99 is plausible but might be optimistic.

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Self pol 

It appears as though I might get 4 or 5 delegates from my precinct.

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Self pol 

There are 134 precincts. If 50% of those each give me one delegate, that would give me about 70 delegates.

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Self pol 

@lawremipsum delegates are like paper clips, right

Self pol 

@lawremipsum I would be thrilled to be very off with my prediction for delegates.

Self pol 

@lawremipsum on the other hand if each of them gives you 4-5 you'll be getting 600+

Self pol 

@britvulcan lololol

I might get a couple precincts like that! Offset by 5 that give me none.

Self pol 

@lawremipsum @britvulcan Any idea how historically other BET candidates have done at getting delegates?

Self pol 

@densetsu @britvulcan I plan to ask, but I'd be surprised if the DFL keeps records like that—so it'd just be people's memories. Nobody remembers anyone campaigning for BET for over a decade. So I assume the answer is historically they get zero delegates.

Self pol 

@lawremipsum I'm going to go with about 300 based on wedge live patron

Self pol 

@lawremipsum also based on people putting off the decision matrix between K and S.

Self pol 

@britvulcan I'm hoping people catch on to this. It seems obvious to me but I spent most of the month not trying to press it.

Self pol 

@lawremipsum also also, this is about 10% of total delegates, which if evenly distributed (HIGHLY UNLIKELY) would still be about right? idk.

Self pol 

@lawremipsum if this were a test question i would leave it blank cause i missed this part of the lecture to even know what's likely

Self pol 

@June it's *really* hard for me to even make a good guess, and I have the most information. I have no resources, I'm the only person who has made any phone calls... but I have twitter and a lot of supportive surrogates.

I feel like my 95% confidence interval is 50-150, and I will be jumping with glee if it's above that.

I will also be surprised if my opponents get more than like 5 each.

Self pol 

@lawremipsum i mean it seems like you're actually running a campaign, don't downplay your efforts.

Self pol 

@lawremipsum In an election with Mayor and City Council, I expect 99% of the delegates will be for those two positions, and the remainder will be BET delegates people get to vote for them directly.

Self pol 

@lawremipsum Honestly I think the Not Carol contingent is pretty strong even though she's not running (but still inserting herself into the conversation somehow).

Self pol 

@densetsu yeah I didn't make a lot of noise about it but hopefully people have connected the dots, with @WedgeLIVE 's help

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